A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
